Portugal's 2024 General Elections: Analysing the Results

On 10th March 2024, Portugal held its general elections. There has been a notable shift in the balance of power, moving from the left towards the right. The political alliance formed by the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the People’s Party (CDS), known as the Democratic Alliance (AD), emerged as the leading party with 29.52% of the vote share. They managed to secure 79 parliamentary seats.

The Socialist Party (PS), formerly dominant, has now ceded its position as the largest political force in the country. With 28.63% of the total votes, they have secured 77 parliamentarians to represent their party. This political shift signals a significant transformation in Portugal’s political landscape.

The right-wing parties emerged victorious, with the far-right Chega party experiencing an unprecedented surge in popularity. In the 2022 general elections, Chega secured 7.38% of the votes, but in the 2024 elections, they achieved 18.06% and elected 48 parliamentarians, marking a fourfold increase from their 2022 results. This growth has propelled them to become the third-largest political force in the country. Meanwhile, the other right-wing party, Liberal Initiative (IL), maintained the same results as the previous election, securing 5.08% of the votes and electing 8 parliamentarians.

On the left side of the political spectrum, there was a significant surge in support for the LIVRE party. They secured 3.26% of the votes and successfully elected 4 parliamentarians — a significant increase compared to the previous general elections where they had only one parliamentarian. The Left Bloc (BE) maintained its position with 5 parliamentarians elected by 4.46% of the votes. The Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU), a coalition between the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Ecologist Party (PEV), secured 3.30% of the votes and elected 4 parliamentarians, a decrease of 2 deputies from the previous general elections.

The political party known as PAN (People-Animals-Nature), which deliberately avoids aligning itself with either the right or left wing, has maintained its influence by securing 1.92% of the total votes and one electing parliamentarian.

The vote count from 31 consulates is still pending and is not expected to be known until the 20th of March, leaving the allocation of four parliamentary seats undecided. This could potentially further complicate the formation of the government.

Regardless of the unallocated seats, the President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, is scheduled to meet with the leaders of every party until the end of this week. Afterwards, he should indicate Portugal’s next Prime Minister. In all likelihood, it should be Luís Montenegro, leader of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and of the Democratic Alliance (AD), who will be called to form Portugal’s next government, with or without the support of the Liberal Initiative (IL).

Another significant shift observed during the 2024 general elections in Portugal was a decrease in abstention. This notable change goes against the longstanding trend of increasing abstention that has been prevalent in the country since the advent of democracy after the Carnation Revolution on the 25th of April 1974. This decrease could signify a heightened concern and interest in the elections, hinting at an anticipation of change in the country's future.